The global models have mostly missed this one - but the NHC is giving it a 60 chance of development now.

While Hurricane King (1950) originated much further west than Irma, it's track once it made landfall looks similar to the track Irma may take, he said. Hurricane News, Information and Live Field Coverage of Landfalls. However, Klotzbach said, a couple took a path similar to the one Irma is forecast to take. Looking at past tracks of all major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5), most crossed only portions of Florida. Hurricane tracking maps, current sea temperatures, and more. “The effect of Irma on the state of Florida is going to be much greater than Andrew’s effect,” Weather Channel senior hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross told the Associated Press. Keep up with the latest hurricane watches and warnings with AccuWeather's Hurricane Center. A new study found that the first named Atlantic storm has been occurring five days earlier on average per decade, going back to 1979, and NOAA is considering changing the start date for hurricane. In this map, Andrew is the line that crosses the southern part of the state from east to west, while the Florida Keys hurricane crosses the Keys then moves north along Florida's west coast. The two devastating Category 5 hurricanes that hit Florida - Andrew and the 1935 Florida Keys/Labor Day hurricane - both only went through part of the state. Such a path is unusual, as many hurricanes approach the state at an angle. 'I'm afraid Irma is going to track too far west and put most of south Florida right in the eyewall,' Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach said. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast path for Irma has it hitting South Florida, including Miami and perhaps its highly developed and expensive central region, then up through affluent Broward and Palm Beach counties and farther north, threatening the entire peninsula. The storm developed near the Cape Verde Islands on September 9, tracking across the Atlantic and up the Eastern Seaboard. Like a giant buzzsaw, Hurricane Irma is forecast to carve a ferocious path up the Florida peninsula, all the way from the Keys to the Georgia border. On September 21, 1938, one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and Southern New England.

Ne hurricane track